The end of television as your parents knew it?

This is a watershed moment in the history of television. General Electric and Comcast have announced a deal to sell 51% ownership in NBC-Universal to Comcast. GE will retain 49% ownership. All sorts of observations, comments, complaints and allegations are already appearing as to what this sale will mean to future television viewing. I can't identify all levels of impact but here are some observations:
1. Comcast could have a greater ability to influence (restrict) the amount of free online content. Their motive is to collect not just eyeballs that are sold to advertisers, but to generate revenue through subscription services.
2. Cable subscriptions could lead to anywhere, anytime television. A cable subscription could lead to a "mobile" or online license to view content.
3. Content may appear on proprietary websites. Instead of sending programming to Hulu.com or elsewhere, the programming could be warehoused on a Comcast site--available only to Comcast cable subscribers.
4. Ownership diversity shrinks further. Larger scale will be needed across all media industries to compete. As companies get larger, the number of owners will shrink.
5. Over-the-air television will likely operate but the need for the sheer number of free TV stations may shrink--especially if more and more programming migrates to on demand availability.
6. Appointment viewing shrinks; there will be less emphasis on watching a program at a specific time when it can be found at any time through a subscription service. (This trend is likely even without the Comcast/NBC-U deal.)
7. This is a pivotal moment for the Federal Communications Commission as it looks at historic regulatory trends and economic analysis to determine marketplace competition and how it should respond to this business deal.
8. Expect the Justice Department to examine the deal--just as they did the XM/Sirius deal (approved), the DirectTV/Dish merger (not approved) and don't forget about the DOJ breakup of AT&T--a reverse strategy to current media trends.
9. Expect another big deal in the next 18 months.

See these articles in The Washington Post:

http://ComcastNBCU-Friday.notlong.com AND http://WashPost-Friday2.notlong.com

The Death of Discourse!

"I'm an addict. I just get lost in Facebook," Newton said. "My daughter gets so PO'd at me, and really it is kind of pathetic. It's not something I'm particularly proud of. I just get so sucked in."

Newton (that's not her real name; she's embarrassed by her Facebook use and requested anonymity) says she spends about 20 hours a week on the social networking site, half the time for work -- she runs an online business -- and half just for fun. She's tried to cut down on her Facebook use but failed.

"I can go a whole day without Facebook," she said. "But I've never made it through an entire weekend."

Although there are no statistics on "Facebook addiction" -- it isn't an actual medical diagnosis -- therapists say they're seeing more and more people like Newton who've crossed the line from social networking to social dysfunction.

(CNN) -- One day recently, Cynthia Newton's 12-year-old daughter asked her for help with homework, but Newton didn't want to help her, because she was too busy on Facebook. So her daughter went upstairs to her room and sent an e-mail asking her for help, but Newton didn't see the e-mail, because, well, she was too busy on Facebook. "Last Friday, I had three clients in my office with Facebook problems," said Paula Pile, a marriage and family therapist in Greensboro, North Carolina. "It's turned into a compulsion -- a compulsion to dissociate from your real world and go live in the Facebook world." Watch more on Facebook addiction »
So how do you know when your Facebook use has turned into a compulsion? You can take Pile's "Facebook Compulsion Inventory" to find out.

Pile and the other therapists interviewed for this article were quick to say that Facebook itself isn't the problem and that the vast majority of its 200 million users probably function just fine.

She says problems arise when users ignore family and work obligations because they find the Facebook world a more enjoyable place to spend time than the real world.

To read the rest of the article to fund out if you are addicted to facebook, here is the link http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/23/ep.facebook.addict/index.html

I think that websites like facebook and twitter are a contribution to the death of discourse, among many other things. I personally know a lot of people whose relationships have been ruined because of Facebook, and i also know people who prefer to talk through facebook rather than actual person-to-person communication. Is this an issue with anybody else? How do you think people can realize that this website is another factor with the death of discourse?

Hunting Killer Trends

An increasingly digitized world makes it easier for artists and fans to have direct relationships, without the labels taking their cut. Artists like Radiohead and Nine Inch Nails have seen the writing on that wall, releasing albums themselves, online, to varying degrees of financial success. These are the early days of what may be a new paradigm for media.

The emergence of social networking sites like Facebook could be the biggest disruptive influence of all. A few keystrokes and mouse clicks now let people spread the word about cutting-edge artists and events to hundreds of others in seconds. In turn, all of those people have the ability to share that news with their friends, too. This ever-increasing free flow of information among consumers and creators could become the greatest threat to old-school media companies' marketing-driven business models.

As often and vehemently as they've resisted innovation in the past, I seriously wonder how today's media companies can survive in the face of digital delivery. Perhaps many of them shouldn't.

What do you think about digital distribution trends? Which companies will get wiped out by this paradigm shift? Which are most likely to survive? Are there even more disruptive innovations on the way? Will companies like Apple and Google be able to keep on innovating?